March Market Commentary
The FTSE 100 hit another record high in February, and both the UK and the Eurozone fared surprisingly well in the face of Trump's tariff threats.
How long European equity markets will continue to outpace US markets remains to be seen but for now it is with some irony that Trump's aggressive economic policy seems to be benefiting his targets so far.
UK
For a second consecutive month, the FTSE 100 index reached an all-time high, closing at 8,809.74 on 28th February 2025. This surge was driven by robust corporate earnings and investor optimism, marking a significant milestone for the index. Defence stocks in particular experienced substantial gains due to European leaders' efforts to promote peace in Ukraine, which bolstered investor confidence in the sector in the UK and throughout Europe, as we will see below.
On 6th February 2025, the Bank of England reduced the main interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, aiming to stimulate economic growth amidst a downgraded growth forecast for the UK economy. The cut was expected but the pound immediately experienced volatility, sliding by 0.8% to $1.241. This seems to reflect investor concerns about potential stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and rising inflation.
News on inflation was not good. We discovered that in January 2025, the UK's inflation rate was 3%, which is up from 2.5% in December 2024. This was the fastest rate of inflation for 10 months. Whilst it didn't stop an interest rate cut, it was something of an unpleasant surprise amidst the wider economic uncertainty prompted by President Trump's trade tariff plans.
Europe
Having spent some time in previous months commenting on the brittle nature of the Eurozone economies, and its vulnerability to overseas policies such as Trump's tariffs, it's something of a pleasant surprise to note that Europe has outperformed the US in 2025 so far in equity markets, demonstrating greater resilience and growth than many expected.
The STOXX Europe 600 index, encompassing 600 large, mid, and small-cap companies across 17 European countries, reached a record high, reflecting increased investor confidence in the region.
Country-specific indices also showed significant gains. Germany's DAX index rose by 2.4% on March 3, 2025, bolstered by news of European leaders working on a Ukraine peace plan to present to the U.S. France's CAC 40 also experienced substantial growth during the same period. This surge in European equities marked the largest performance gap in favour of European stocks over the S&P 500 since 2000.
Several factors contributed to this performance. In particular:
Valuation Appeal: European stocks traded at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14x, compared to 22x for U.S. stocks, making them more attractive to investors seeking value opportunities.
Geopolitical Developments: Increased optimism about a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict and the anticipated economic benefits from reconstruction efforts and resumption of natural gas flows boosted investor sentiment.
Economic Indicators: Improved Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings and a rise in mergers and acquisitions activity signalled a recovering European economy, further enhancing market confidence.
European defense stocks saw significant growth, driven by increased spending due to global security concerns and U.S. policy shifts encouraging Europe to bolster its own defense capabilities.
United States
U.S. financial markets experienced notable volatility, influenced by trade tensions, economic data releases, and shifts in investor sentiment.
The S&P 500 index declined by 1.4% over the month, reflecting investor concerns over trade policies and economic indicators. The Dow decreased by 1.6% in February, with significant daily losses, including a drop of over 700 points on 21st February, driven by weak consumer sentiment and unexpected contractions in the services sector. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell by 4% during the month, as major technology stocks faced declines.
U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.28%, the lowest since December. This drop was influenced by disappointing economic data and concerns over the new tariffs. The bond market advanced by 0.6% during the month, with longer-dated Treasuries showing similar gains.
The announcement of new U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, along with retaliatory measures, heightened fears of a trade war, negatively impacting investor confidence. There has been anecdotal evidence that Trump's tactics have caused greater national pride in countries such as neighbouring Canada, sparking an increase in domestic product purchases over US goods. However these stories should be taken with a pinch of salt for now. The tariff wars have a long way to play out and it will be some time before the true picture is clear.
US domestic economic indicators were less favourable than in January. A decline in consumer sentiment, lower-than-expected existing home sales, and the first contraction in the U.S. services sector in over two years contributed to market volatility. Major technology companies, including Tesla and Nvidia, experienced significant declines.
Far East
China's financial markets exhibited mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline of approximately 0.92% since the beginning of 2025, reflecting investor concerns over trade tensions and economic indicators. However the tech-focused Hang Seng Tech Index entered a bull market, surging 25% from its January lows. This rally was driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, notably the development of DeepSeek, and renewed investor interest in Chinese technology companies.
The yuan weakened by 2.2% against the US dollar since Trump's tariff threats, leading Chinese authorities to tighten controls on capital outflows and scrutinise overseas investments to stabilise the currency.
Despite downward pressure on the Nikkei 225, Japan's economic fundamentals remain robust, with expectations of continued GDP growth and wage increases.
The yen appreciated against major currencies, reaching a high of 149.285 per US dollar. This movement was influenced by an unexpected increase in Japan's core inflation, which reached its highest pace in 19 months in January. The Bank of Japan has maintained its hawkish stance on interest rates because of this.
Emerging Markets
The announcement of new U.S. tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China heightened fears of a global trade war. This development led to significant declines in major stock indices worldwide and added uncertainty to emerging markets.
Indian stock markets faced their steepest consecutive monthly drop in nearly three decades, with the Nifty 50 index falling about 14% from its September 2024 peak. High inflation, stagnant incomes, and a $25 billion foreign investor sell-off contributed to this decline.
Middle Eastern stock markets had a mixed performance. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index fell 1.6%, influenced by a 2.2% drop in Saudi Aramco's shares after reporting a significant decrease in annual profit. In contrast, Abu Dhabi's index rose 0.3%, driven by gains in companies like Borouge.
The Central Bank of Brazil expressed caution as credit growth continued amid high borrowing costs and increasing debt levels among households and businesses. They have been steadily raising interest rates to try and curb inflation.
Conclusion
US policy continues to create volatility, albeit for 2025 so far it has worked to the the advantage of European equity markets and not the US. It is worth remembering that this is why the well diversified global portfolios we always recommend are so important to protect our investments.
It would be foolish to think that this is a trend that will persist for the remainder of 2025, as there are plenty more twists and turns to come as President Trump stamps his mark on his second and final term. We may see some form of peace in the Ukraine/Russia conflict as well as in the Middle East, but at what cost and for how long is hard to predict.
And Finally...
Did you know that Canada holds the record for having the most lakes in the world?
It has an estimated 2 million lakes covering nearly 9% of its total land area. Canada's lakes alone make up for about 60% of the worlds lakes.
Sources
Market data
https://www.ft.com/content/3e3b0ebb-e91c-4609-83a0-c9ba4a9ef74b
https://frontierasset.com/february-2025-capital-markets-perspective/
https://www.ft.com/content/3e3b0ebb-e91c-4609-83a0-c9ba4a9ef74b
Markets data - stock market, bond, equity, commodity prices - FT.com
Business and commentary:
https://www.investopedia.com/why-european-stocks-beating-the-s-and-p-500-this-year-11689769
https://www.ft.com/content/0ebaabb2-58b8-48e6-b83f-0e6cb6b02b37
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/pound-slides-stagflation-puts-boe-deeper-cutting-path-2025-02-06/
Industry Reports | Choose From 100s of Global Industries (mintel.com)
Economic output and productivity - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
Market Insights | J.P. Morgan Asset Management (jpmorgan.com)