Unemployment rises unexpectedly – what it means for the UK economy

Unemployment has risen unexpectedly in the UK in the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

For the three months to November 2024, employment fell by 47,000 sending the unemployment rate up from 4.3% to 4.4%. The ONS has also revised its previous data to reflect 32,000 extra unemployed in the three months to October 2024.

Meanwhile, wages continue to grow at a strong clip, rising by 5.6%. Once accounting for inflation this means real terms pay growth is currently 3.4%.

Commenting on the employment and wage figures, ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: “Pay growth picked up for a second consecutive period, again driven by strong increases in the private sector.

“Real pay growth, which excludes the effects of inflation, increased slightly. The number of employees on payroll, drawn from tax data, fell in the three months to November.

“Alongside this, the number of vacancies fell again, for the 30th consecutive period, although the total number remains slightly above its pre-pandemic level.”

Economic implications

The bigger picture for the UK economy is mixed currently.

Inflation – which is currently rising at 2.5% on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure is slowing.

Furthermore, GDP growth is still very weak. Although the economy grew by 0.1% in November 2024, this is still below expectations.

This coupled with unexpected falls in employment levels will all be significant signals to the Bank of England when it considers its next rate decision on 2 February.

Taken together, all three indicators suggest the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can safely lower its base rate of interest in order to give households and businesses some relief on their debt costs.

The one confounding indicator here is ongoing strong wage growth. This has the potential to feed through to higher prices if the strong increase in earnings creates more demand in the economy.

For now however, households are still playing a significant amount of catching up in earnings and purchasing power, which would suggest any inflationary effects will remain muted for now.

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